Euro to Plunge Deeper on Fiscal Crisis Consequences

  February 22nd, 2010 at 19:13

EuroThe outlook for the European currency is perhaps the worst since its introduction in 1999, as disparities among Eurozone members’ financial structure is likely to decline the appeal for the currency even further, since measures to bring budget deficits to the ECB’s target are likely to set several countries into a longer recession.

After the Greek crisis affected markets in the Eurozone raising concerns regarding massive budget deficits in several bloc’s members, traders became more skeptical towards interest rate hikes in the region, as a series of financial measures to be taken by Greece, Portugal, Spain and others, are likely to force the European Central Bank to maintain its benchmark interest rate at the lowest level since the Euro was introduced, considering that these measures to control the nations’ budget deficits will certainly require stimulus to avoid a new wave of recession in the region.

The euro has already lost 5 percent against the dollar this year, and despite European officials efforts to ensure the profitability of investments in the region, an exodus of capital towards other economic regions is evident since last year’s third quarter and so far this trend has a extremely high possibility of continuing to cause the euro’s depreciation.

EUR/USD traded at 1.3588 as of 16:02 GMT from an opening rate of 1.3626 yesterday.

If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Euro, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

5 Comments

  1. Ashwin Chinmulgund

    Hi,

    I have some Euros with me and wish to know how much will the Euro fall against the USD or the AUD.
    I can wait for upto a year to sell my Euros.
    Will it be better to sell them now and minimize my losses?

    Please let me know at my GMail ID.

    Regards,
    Ashwin Chinmulgund.

  2. Ashwin Chinmulgund

    Hi,

    I have some Euros with me which I wish to sell at a good price.
    For how long will the Euro fall against the USD / AUD.

    I can wait for upto December 2010.
    Please suggest me about the same.

    Regards,
    Ashwin Chinmulgund.

    • Jan Baros

      Hello.

      It may be, yet it’s uncertain when and to what level, that the euro will rebound at some point this year if the fiscal scenario improves in different Eurozone members. Yet, in your position i would definitely sell them right away considering that both USD and AUD are set to rise on their favorable interest rates outlook. For the time being, the euro and the pound are the less attractive currencies among the main currencies.

  3. Lyall

    Hi!
    I own property in England and am about to sell up and move to France.
    1. Can I assume that sterling will remain strong vs the Euro for the next few months?
    2. What effect is the upcoming general election in the UK likely to have on the strength of Sterling? e.g. what if there is a hung parliament with no outright winner?
    Lyall Davidson

    • 1. If there will be a definite winner in UK elections then yes.
      2. See above. It will weaken if the elections result in something indefinite.

      EUR/GBP also depends on Eurozone news. If Greece gets a nice bailout and there won’t be such problems with Spain and Portugal, the euro may go up against all currencies.

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